What follows is a set of predictions and to each one I\u2019ve assigned a probability rating of how likely it is to happen. I should also be clear that I\u2019m not talking about publishing as a whole, or even book publishing \u2013 just that corner of it (\u2018trade publishing<\/a>\u2019) which deals with fiction and non-fiction for the general reader. Oh, and the illustrations that dot this piece? They\u2019re visions of the future from the past, just to remind us all that I\u2019ve probably got absolutely everything wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> <10%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Print publishing<\/a> is plainly not collapsing. The ebook <\/a>share of trade publishing is hovering at about 21% overall, and about 38% for adult fiction. (Figures true for the US<\/a>; British ones are not that different.) There are serious suggestions<\/a> by people on the e-book side of things that the ebook market is going to shrink in 2014, rather than expanding. For what it\u2019s worth, I\u2019d guess that the ebook market share will actually grow a little over time, but not so fast that it won\u2019t have down years as well as up years. Either way, print publishing<\/a> is here to stay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> >30%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n I desperately hope the chains don\u2019t go out of business. They do a wonderful job. They are culturally vital. They are essential for \u2018discoverability\u2019. And of course, there are genres which are highly dependent on print sales through bookshops. I would also say that, in the UK, Waterstones\u2019 new management is doing a terrific job in challenging circumstances and if anyone can turn the chain around, then they\u2019re the people to do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All that said, until the big book chains (here and in the US) prove themselves able to make a consistent non-marginal profit, the doubt has to remain. At the moment, Waterstones is in loss<\/a> as is Barnes & Noble in the US. That\u2019s scary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> 100%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019ve slightly cheated there because the consolidation is already happening. Penguin\/Random House is the landmark deal<\/a> for sure, but Hachette has just announced<\/a> the acquisition of Perseus in the US. These things will progress. The big operators are going to get bigger. That will also mean that Amazon will have a tough job pushing publishers around, because both sides simply need each other too much. Random Penguins wouldn\u2019t, most likely, be profitable without Amazon \u2013 but Amazon can\u2019t be the everything store if it doesn\u2019t stock a third of the books market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> 70%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Again: the future is with us now. When ebooks first became a force in the industy, publishers tried to maintain paperback style pricing for a digital product. That was a vain attempt and indie publishers simply raced in to the gap left open. Result: publishers allowed ebook prices to float \u2013 but those indie publishers who actually wanted to make money as opposed to simply finding readers, realised that revenue maximisation was likelier to happen around the $3-5 range than the $0.99 one. What we see now is probably where prices will settle, give or take a bit of ongoing downward movement. A revenue collapse in publishing analogous to what happened in the musical download market simply has not taken place, and it\u2019s in no one\u2019s interest (except readers\u2019) that it should.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> <10%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n See above. Essentially this hasn\u2019t happened and won\u2019t happen, except that what happens in each different national market depends on things like the attitude to piracy, the effectiveness of official sanctions, the price level in that market, the ease of using legitimate services, and so on. So yes, there could be major problems in specific national markets, but there won\u2019t be an apocalypse. Phew!<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> 100%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Again, this is a part of the future that has essentially happened and won\u2019t reverse. Random House made a huge amount of money<\/a> and everyone else followed suit to the best of their ability. Likewise, the indie revolution has shown that there are plenty of low-brow genre works that readers are happy to gobble up. Big Publishing has always been about turning a buck, so it\u2019s only logical that publishers<\/a> are happy to go where readers lead them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The flip side of that coin is that Big Publishing has long struggled to make a go of \u2018smaller\u2019 literary novels. The number of those things being published by the big guys has fallen sharply over the years and that\u2019s not about to reverse. But of course, terrific literary fiction is still being written and there are still people passionate enough (and financially crazy enough) to ensue that the stuff gets published. Our own Elly Millar and Sam Jordison (two of our\u00a0fine editors<\/a>) founded\u00a0Galley Beggar Press<\/a>\u00a0out of passion \u2013 and they\u2019ve just had their first absolutely\u00a0smash hit success<\/a>. Such stories are far more common than they were, and will only go on increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> 75%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n In the US, crime fiction <\/a>is already an ebook genre. Some 75% of sales are electronic, and the ratio for romance (if we include indie authors, as we ought to) is probably even greater. SFF, paranormal romance, fan fiction, anything dystopian \u2026 all these are areas where ebooks do and will continue to predominate. With literary fiction, the reverse is true. It\u2019s hard to think of a single literary novel which arose out of the e-book industry and there will be very few where print sales don\u2019t predominate. Those things show no signs of altering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> >80%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Following on from the above point, literary novelists are still highly dependent on the old channels of acclaim. All the old methods for establishing reputations still apply: prominence in bookshops, good reviews, puffs from Important People, festivals and mainstream media appearances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For non-literary types, those things may be less essential \u2013 it\u2019s easy to think of a genre sensation arising without any of those things. James Oswald<\/a>, would be just one example. EL James and High Howey would be others. There are a lot of them. That said, however, a good majority of genre authors \u2013 especially mid- and upmarket genre authors \u2013 are well served by those old channels and breakout exceptions in these areas will continue to be the exception not the rule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> 50%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Want a good book on bee-keeping? Or help you improve your archery, or groom your poodle? If so, your local bookshop will almost certainly disappoint you. Very few bookshops stock a range of titles large enough to house these kind of niche non-fiction <\/a>needs, which means that you will almost certainly head to Amazon or some other online seller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But that raises the question what publishers are for in these areas. For sure, they can edit, copy-edit, design and print a book \u2013 but those things are all fairly easily purchased elsewhere. In return, publishers currently ask for 75% of all ebook receipts and a somewhat similar share of receipts from bookshops (net of printing & logistics costs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n For most authors, that\u2019s a pretty lousy deal. Indeed, I\u2019ve written two such non-fiction titles<\/a> in my time (How to Write<\/a> and Getting Published<\/a>). One of those books sees about 2\/3 of its total sales taking place online. The other sees more than 4\/5 of its sales down that route. Now I\u2019m no idiot: I could perfectly well have self-published both titles. I\u2019d have lost some \u2013 not many \u2013 bookshop sales, but I\u2019d have made a stack load by retaining the full share of receipts from Amazon. Most niche non-fiction<\/a> authors will be in a similar position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At present, it\u2019s fair to say that most non-fiction<\/a> authors haven\u2019t noticed these new economics (and I sold those two titles a few years back when the market was different), but that\u2019ll change. The one slam-bam advantage that regular publishers do have and will retain is the kudos of having a \u2018properly\u2019 published book. Which is weird, when you think about it: regular publishing could become the new vanity publishing, for certain categories of title at any rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> 80%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s already happening and will happen ever more and with bigger names. And the logic is inescapable. It\u2019s incredibly easy and cheap to e-publish \u2013 and though Big Publishing will continue to have clout and authority, those advantages are not insuperable. Plenty of \u2018trad\u2019 authors will think that giving conventional publishers 75% of e-royalties for, erp, just what exactly? is a game not worth playing. So we\u2019ll see trad authors (like Barry Eisler<\/a>) go indie \u2026 but we\u2019ll also see indie authors use traditional routes wherever it makes sense. Hugh Howey<\/a>, for example, is held up (with good reason) as the voice of Indie Publishing, but he also partners up with traditional publishers<\/a> wherever it makes sense. And quite right too. It\u2019s not ideology; it\u2019s business. This trend will sharpen abruptly over the next few years and will start to include some big conventional names. And that\u2019s good if you\u2019re an author, potentially scary if you\u2019re a publisher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> 75%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Time was when you could tell an indie book cover at a hundred yards, and not in a good way. Ditto, when it came to presentation, copy-editing and story-telling. But even at $0.99, readers want a decent read and authors have responded.\u00a0Editorial excellence\u00a0<\/a>still matters. So does\u00a0strong presentation<\/a>. Indie authors have learned those lessons and there will be an ever-smaller gap between the well-published indie novel and the traditionally published sort. Obviously, I\u2019m biased, but I do think that editorial services like our own will continue to matter. (And if your novel needs editorial help, then don\u2019t just sit there \u2013\u00a0go get it<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability:<\/strong> 80%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Publishers find it much, much harder to market<\/a> books than they used to. Let\u2019s tick off the ways that have either failed or become much less effective:<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s somewhat depressing to review that list, but I doubt if many publishers would disagree \u2013 and you\u2019ll often hear publishers bemoaning a \u2018discoverability problem\u2019, that is the difficulty of getting good new books to the attention of readers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If that complaint means, \u201cit\u2019s harder for us to market books now than it used to be\u201d, then it\u2019s true. If it means that an increasing share of sales now lies with a handful of super-successful books and authors at the top end, then it\u2019s also true. If it means that readers themselves have trouble in choosing their next book \u2013 well, no. Readers today have far more recommendation devices than they used to. It\u2019s not just friends, bookshops and newspapers, it\u2019s a gazillion blogs, it\u2019s Goodreads, it\u2019s book clubs (more common now than in the past), it\u2019s social media, and so on. Me; I don\u2019t like a world where everyone only reads bestsellers but maybe that\u2019s just how readers are if you let them read what they want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And last because this is getting to be an overly long post:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probability: phew, tough one, let\u2019s go big and say <\/strong>75%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Number of books remaining broadly flat that\u2019s an easy call. The number of books always remains about the same. Has done for years. Even with all this internettery and mobile stuff, people still read books.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Average cost of a book:<\/strong> the average cost of a book has drifted down a little over the years. It\u2019s very hard to see real price increases and even nominal price increases are unlikely given that intelligently applied price discounts are one of the most reliable ways to impact book sales. On top of that, indie authors will always be willing to undercut Big Publishing. So, yes, the price of a book will drift down (in real terms).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Amazon getting more of the pie:<\/strong> Amazon gets a rough old treatment in the press. Publishers hate<\/a> it. Authors complain about it or give loads of money<\/a> to rivals. Agents rebuke<\/a> it. The Society of Authors sounds<\/a> off about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\nPrint Publishing Will Collapse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The Big Book Chains Will Go Bankrupt<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Publishers Will Consolidate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Price Pressures Will Ease, But Prices Will Still Come Down<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Piracy Will Kill Writing For Profit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Big Publishers Will Print More Trash \u2026 And Micro-publishers Will Take A Larger Share Of Literary Prizes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Ebooks Will Dominate Various Niches And Be Almost Irrelevant In Others<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/figure>\n\n\n\nThe Old Channels Of Acclaim Still Matter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
There Will Be Swaths Of Non-fiction Where Indie Authors Will (Or Should) Predominate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
More \u2018Traditional\u2019 Authors Will Go Hybrid; Successful Indie Authors Will Also Team With Traditional Publishers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Indie Authors Will Go On Professionalising<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Publishers Will Find It Increasingly Hard To Market Books \u2013 But Discoverability Will Not Be An Issue For Readers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\n
The Number Of Books Sold Will Remain Broadly Flat; The Average Cost Of A Book Will Drop A Little; Amazon Will Get More, Publishers Less; Authors\u2019 Share May Improve<\/h2>\n\n\n\n